A Better Fit for the Nats than Mark Buehrle

Let’s have a little thought experiment. Here’s the statistics over the past three years for Mark Buehrle:

2009: 213.1 IP, 4.43 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 3.84 ERA, 3.4 WAR
2010: 210.1 IP, 4.24 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 4.28 ERA, 3.7 WAR
2011: 205.1 IP, 4.78 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, 3.59 ERA, 3.4 WAR

Pretty decent and consistent numbers. But you already knew that Buehrle is decent and consistent. That’s why the Marlins just signed him to a 4-year, $58 million contract, snatching him away from Mike Rizzo and the Nats, who considered Buehrle their number one priority coming into the offseason. Rizzo seems to have balked at both the size and duration of the contract, and I think I have an idea as to why. Take a look at the numbers over the last three years from this mystery player, who we’ll call Mr. X for now:

2009: 214 IP, 6.77 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 3.62 ERA, 3.6 WAR
2010: 209.1 IP, 7.78 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 4.47 ERA, 3.8 WAR
2011: 199.2 IP, 6.67 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 3.79 ERA, 3.8 WAR

Mr. X is practically identical to Buehrle. Yes, Mr. X gives up more walks than Buehrle, but he also gets significantly more strikeouts. It should be noted that Mr. X is right handed, while Buehrle is a southpaw and therefore a slightly rarer commodity, but I would argue Mr. X has been slightly better over the last three years, so they’re essentially the same value. Here’s the catch, though, Mark Buehrle is 31 years old, but Mr. X is only 28. So who is this mystery player, and why is he important? Mr. X is none other than Edwin Jackson, and he’s important because he’s also on the free agent market this winter.

My guess it that Rizzo heard the price for Buehrle, looked at Jackson, and thought, Why should I commit 4 years and $58 million to this 31-year-old, when I could pay $36 million over 3 years for this 28-year-old who might actually be better? Sure, Buehrle has a longer track record, but a track record that only extends to 2009 didn’t stop GMs from fawning over C.J. Wilson (Wilson before 2009: 1.3 WAR. Since: 12.5 WAR). Now, Jackson is a Scott Boras client, and the Nats do have a history of paying exorbitantly for Scott Boras clients (Jayson Werth, anyone?), but even if Rizzo ends up signing Jackson to, say, $50 million over 4 years, is that such a terrible deal (especially when you consider that Jackson has been worth over $15 million each of the last three years according to Fangraphs dollar value metrics)? Now that Wilson has been snatched up by the Angels, Edwin Jackson is certainly the best free agent starting pitcher available, but he might have been the best fit for the Nationals all along.

My Regular Season Baseball Awards

So this is a bit late, but here are my choices for the regular season awards this year. Note instead of Silver Slugger/Golden Glove, I just picked the best player at each position.

NL MVP:
1. Matt Kemp
2. Roy Halladay
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Ryan Braun
5. Joey Votto
6. Jose Reyes
7. Troy Tulowitzki
8. Cliff Lee
9. Justin Upton
10. Pablo Sandoval

NL Cy Young:
1. Roy Halladay
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Cliff Lee
4. Ian Kennedy
5. Cole Hamels
6. Matt Cain
7. Chris Carpenter
8. Tim Lincecum
9. Madison Bumgarner
10. R.A. Dickey

NL ROY:
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Wilson Ramos
3. Brandon Beachy
4. Vance Worley
5. Danny Espinosa

All-NL Team:
P: Roy Halladay
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Pablo Sandoval
SS: Jose Reyes
LF: Ryan Braun
CF: Matt Kemp
RF: Justin Upton

AL MVP:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Jose Bautista
3. Justin Verlander
4. CC Sabathia
5. Dustin Pedroia
6. Ian Kinsler
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Miguel Cabrera
9. Evan Longoria
10. Ben Zobrist

AL Cy Young:
1. Justin Verlander
2. CC Sabathia
3. Jered Weaver
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Dan Haren
6. James Shields
7. C.J. Wilson
8. Doug Fister
9. Justin Masterson
10. Ricky Romero

AL ROY:
1. Michael Pineda
2. Brett Lawrie
3. Desmond Jennings
4. Dustin Ackley
5. Ivan Nova

All-AL Team:
P: Justin Verlander
C: Alex Avila
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Dustin Pedroia
3B: Evan Longoria
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Alex Gordon
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Jose Bautista
DH: David Ortiz

Playoff predictions

Short and sweet predictions, before the postseason starts. Note this is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.

Divisional series: Yankees, Rangers, Phillies, Brewers
Championship series: Yankees, Brewers
World Series: Brewers

Will post my thoughts on regular season awards sometime this weekend.

What's in a Name? Plenty, When It Comes to NFL Quarterbacks.

Good quarterbacks tend to have good names. Johnny Unitas. Joe Namath. Roger Staubach. There are dozens of examples of all-time great quarterbacks who have names that sound like their bearers were destined to become all-time great quarterbacks. Now, not all of the best quarterbacks have the best names-- someone who doesn’t know who Fran Tarkenton is might hear his name and think he’s a daytime talk show host, for example-- but in general, if you want your son to grow up to become an all-time great quarterback, it would behoove you to give him a strong name.

So what makes a great QB name? Well, they’re usually short and simple, without too many consonants, and they evoke a blue collar work ethic as well as the intelligence you’d expect from a strong leader. Joe Montana might be the best possible example. When George Lucas and Steven Spielberg were coming up with a name for the perfect action hero, they had to settle for Indiana Jones because Joe Montana was already taken. Neither ‘Joe’ nor ‘Montana’ would work quite as well under other circumstances. Imagine if Joe Montana wanted to go by ‘Joseph Montana.’ Would we think of him as one of the greatest QBs to ever live? I’m not so sure. Steven Young just doesn’t have the same ring to it as Steve Young. Dan Marino is a great name, but Joe Marino just doesn’t work quite the same. Before people start accusing me of racial bias when it comes to QB names, I should point out that Donovan McNabb and Warren Moon are both great QB names. Randall Cunningham, on the other hand, sounds like a member of the Nantucket polo club. File Cunningham under the exceptions column with Tarkenton.

Still, Bart Starr, Jim Kelly, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, the list goes on and on of good QBs with good names. On the other end of the spectrum, when you hear the name Sage Rosenfels or J.P. Losman, and then learn that they’re trying to be quarterbacks in the NFL, you can’t help but think they have an uphill battle. It’s not a perfect predictor, but the correlation between quality of name and quality of quarterback seems pretty strong. Looking at all the currently relevant NFL QBs (starters, and QBs who are normally starters but are currently injured), Sage Rosenfels is not among them, so none of them are completely without hope, and frankly, it’s a pretty solid crop of names. Because I’m the type of person who does pointless things, I put them into groups with ratings from 1 to 10 (1 being Sage Rosenfels, 10 being Joe Montana):

The 1s: Again, no Sage Rosenfels, so this category is empty.

The 2s: Kerry Collins, Kevin Kolb, Ben Roethlisberger-- Not a fan of alliteration in quarterback names. Collins is hurt even more by his first name, and I still have to take a second to remember that ‘Kolb’ is pronounced ‘Cobb,’ not ‘Coalb.’ Roethlisberger is like getting shot in the face with a machine gun that fires consonants. I looked up how to spell ‘Roethlisberger’ twice and it still looks wrong.

The 3s: Rex Grossman, Andy Dalton, Luke McCown-- ‘Andy’ and ‘Luke’ are given names that just do not inspire confidence (Lucas and Andrew would both be better, I think), and Rex Grossman is just... disgusting. Mike Shannahan ought to switch to John Beck as his starter just for the name upgrade.

The 4s: Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman, Kyle Orton, Philip Rivers, Tarvaris Jackson-- I think ‘Josh’ and ‘Kyle’ suffer from the Andy and Luke syndrome, while I think Cassel’s name would rate higher if it were spelled ‘Castle.’ I like ‘Rivers’ as a last name, but Philip is just tough to work with. Even a switch to ‘Phil’ would not help much. Saying the word ‘Tarvaris’ makes you sound like you have a mouthful of marbles. Not exactly what you want from your quarterback’s name.

The 5s: Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Jason Campbell, Chad Henne, Ryan Fitzpatrick-- ‘Sanchez’ has rather unfortunate and inappropriate connotations, and ‘Flacco’ looks like it could have unfortunate and inappropriate connotations. I wanted to rate Fitzpatrick higher because of his performance so far this season, but... consonants. Campbell and Henne are here because... eh, they just don’t do it for me.

The 6s: Eli and Peyton Manning, Colt McCoy-- Some people might disagree with me putting these names so low, and I’ll admit that they are pretty solid, but to me they’re just on the wrong side of cowboy cliche to vault into the upper echelons.

The 7s: Matt Ryan, Matt Hasselbeck, Matthew Stafford-- See what I did there? In Hasselbeck’s case, he’s just got too many consonants to put him up higher, while ‘Ryan’ just doesn’t fit with Matt as well as it could. I think Mark Ryan would be much better. Matthew Stafford, on the other hand, would benefit greatly from a switch to Matt Stafford. That would vault him at least into the next group, occupied by another Matt...

The 8s: Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick: ‘Cutler’ evokes a nice cut of beef, like prime rib. The rest are just sturdy, strong names. The story of Vick’s name is interesting. In college, he went by Michael, but when he got to the pros wanted everyone to start calling him ‘Mike’. Now the consensus seems to have settled back on Michael. I don’t know whether it was his choice or people just decided, “You know, Mike Vick sounds kind of stupid, we’re gonna stick with Michael.” Either way, an excellent choice to switch back.

The 9s: Donovan McNabb, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford-- These are tough to top. I already mentioned McNabb, and I have high hopes for Cam Newton and Sam Bradford based on their names alone. It’s still early in their respective careers, but so far this season, they appear to be headed for QB greatness, and their names might have something to do with that. Just pure excellence. That leaves us with just one level to go, and really, we all knew from the start only one man could occupy the top tier, only one quarterback currently in the league has a name that can compare to Joe Montana...

The 10: Tom Brady-- really there’s not much to say. Just the perfect combination of surname and given name. It’s as if Jesus Christ and Albert Einstein got together and came up with the perfect QB name, and then descended from the heavens and imparted this name onto Brady’s parents because they got bored up in heaven with the Trent Dilfers and the Kent Grahams of the world and wanted to create the greatest possible NFL quarterback. They knew that when it comes to quarterbacks, names matter.

Happy Birthday Cal!

Times are bleak for Orioles fans, so it is only appropriate that we step back and appreciate Orioles great Cal Ripken who celebrated his birthday (August 24^th) yesterday. Ripken’s legacy is usually discussed in terms of his career accomplishments—2,632 consecutive games played, 3,184 hits, 431 home runs, 19 All-Star games, etc., and he is universally regarded as one of the top five shortstops of all-time. Sometimes overlooked, however, is that he had some truly amazing individual seasons, with the best being 1991.

In 1991 Ripken won the Home Run Derby, All-Star Game MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, MVP, AP Player of the Year, and Sporting News Player of the Year. He had a .323/.374/.556 triple slash line with 210 hits, 46 doubles, 34 home runs, and an MLB leading 368 total bases. The .556 slugging percentage was second in the majors, ahead of notable sluggers Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr., Rafael Palmeiro, Jose Canseco, Albert Belle, Cecil Fielder, and Will Clark. His OPS of .940 was third best in baseball (162 OPS+), as was his wOBA of .407 (156 wRC+). Combine this great hitting with great fielding (both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs have only Tony Gwynn being a better fielder in baseball in 1991) and the positive positional adjustment for playing shortstop, and Ripken easily leads both Baseball-Reference (11.0) and FanGraphs (11.1) in Wins Above Replacement (rWAR and fWAR respectively). Ripken was the only player to reach above 8.3 in either rating, which includes pitchers.

To get the best feel for Ripken’s dominance, however, is to compare him to the other shortstops that played enough to qualify for end of season awards. Barry Larkin was the only shortstop who hit remotely in the same stratosphere as Ripken (.302/.378/.506, .884 OPS, 143 OPS+, .399 wOBA, 152 wRC+), but he only played in 123 games and was not as great a defender. Ripken’s defense and durability matter significantly, as Larkin and the next-best shortstop in baseball, Ozzie Smith, combine to roughly equal the value of Ripken (combined 10.5 rWAR, 11.2 fWAR). The disparity is even more striking if you consider only American League shortstops. The other four AL shortstops (Travis Fryman—even though he played a bunch of 3B, Mike Gallego, Ozzie Guillen, and Alvaro Espinoza) to have enough plate appearances to qualify for end of season awards combined for 10.3 rWAR and 11.3 fWAR. Ripken was simply playing shortstop at a level that was unrivaled by his contemporaries in 1991, and has rarely been reached in the history of baseball.

The only disappointing part of Ripken’s season was that the Orioles were still an absolutely dreadful team. Their 67-95 record was the second-worst in the American League, and they finished 24 games behind the Blue Jays in the division. It is scary to think about how that team would have done if Ripken had not had his historic year. According to Baseball-Reference, Ripken produced 11 of the 20.3 rWAR Orioles position players produced, and the pitchers collectively only produced 0.5 rWAR. FanGraphs is kinder to the rest of the Orioles, as the O’s position players other than Ripken accumulated 15.8 fWAR. Unfortunately, Orioles pitchers sported a 4.59 ERA (the worst in baseball) even though their FIP was 4.07, and the Orioles hitters were not good enough to lift the pitching. Obviously none of this was Ripken’s fault—as voters appreciated by awarding him the MVP—and it is good to remember that special individual effort in these hard times—especially when you realize Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and J.J. Hardy (the Orioles four best position players) have combined for 9.0 rWAR and 11.1 fWAR this season.

Feeling bad for Toronto and Tampa fans

For the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays (and theoretically, the Baltimore Orioles), the margin for error is so small because they have to compete directly with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, the juggernauts of baseball. It is natural to wonder what Tampa and Toronto would be able to accomplish if they played in any division other than the AL East. Well, one way to examine the issue is with Baseball-Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS), which measures the number of runs/game each team is better or worse than the average team. The factors used to determine this are run differential and strength of schedule. Tampa and Toronto have an SRS of .4. While that may not look impressive, the only teams with a better SRS are the Yankees (1.7), Red Sox (1.3), Phillies (1.1), and the Rangers (.9), with the Braves also having a rating of .4. By this system, four of the top eight teams in all of baseball are in the AL East, and the Rays and Blue Jays are better than any team from the AL Central, NL Central, or NL West. While this might be a bit hyperbolic, it seems clear that the Rays and Blue Jays would be able to compete in any of those divisions. Fans of those teams could be getting excited over a pennant race, instead of knowing that their season is going nowhere.

And in case you’re wondering how the Orioles would be outside of the division—they would still be awful.  The only teams with a worse SRS than the Orioles’ -.9 are the Cubs (-1 SRS) and the Astros (-1.2 SRS). So put the Orioles in any division besides the NL Central, and they are still comfortably in last. Put the O’s in the NL Central, and they might not be last, but they wouldn’t be anywhere near the top either.

Lack of talent for Orioles shows in standings

As we enter the last two months of the regular season, the Orioles have only four position players who have accrued more than one win above replacement this season according to Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, and Nick Markakis (both have all four as above 1 WAR and have no other Orioles position players reaching that threshold). According to Fangraphs, all non-DH Yankee position player starters have over 1 WAR, and Baseball-Reference lists seven (Derek Jeter being the only one not to have accrued 1 rWAR yet). The four Orioles have a combined 9 fWAR—Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez have combined for 8.8 fWAR. Jones, Wieters, Hardy, and Markakis have combined for 6.9 rWAR—or .3 rWAR below the sum of Brett Gardner and Granderson’s rWAR. The picture is not any prettier looking at the rest of the division. Carl Crawford is the only Boston starter with a fWAR below one, and Scutaro joins him according to Baseball-Reference, leaving seven Red Sox with 1+ rWAR (like the Yankees). Adam Jones’ team-leading 2.8 fWAR and Matt Wieter’s team-leading 2.3 rWAR are dwarfed by Dustin Pedroia’s 6.7 fWAR and 6.1 rWAR. Tampa has seven players with 1+ fWAR and nine players with 1+ rWAR. Toronto has a similar amount of +1 WAR starters—but they also have arguably the best player in baseball in Jose Bautista and a resurgent Yunel Escobar who are clearly superior to anyone on the Orioles.

The pitching viewpoint isn’t any prettier. Zach Britton has the highest fWAR, but that is damning with faint praise, as he has only accumulated 1.7 fWAR. Worse, in his last two divisional starts he has pitched a combined one inning (!) and allowed 17 runs (but only 13 earned…). Regardless of whether you prefer rWAR or fWAR for pitching, each team has at least one dominant pitcher where the Orioles have none. Ricky Romero for Toronto, James Shields and David Price for Tampa, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester for Boston, and CC Sabathia for New York clearly outclass any of our pitchers. Even more galling is how our division rivals are able to turn retreads such as Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Matt Albers (former Oriole) into valuable pitchers while the Orioles turn retreads Mike Gonzalez and Kevin Gregg into even worse retreads, and transform the team’s most promising pitcher, Brian Matusz, into a pitcher who has been worth -.5 fWAR and -.9 rWAR.

Today, the standings show the Orioles 25 games behind the Yankees in the division (and 24 behind the Red Sox). The reason is simple—the Orioles do not have anywhere near the talent that the rest of the teams in the division do. And as this is not likely to change anytime soon, Orioles fans should become even more accustomed to residing in the basement in the AL East.