Ovechkin's Lost Mojo

I have avoided writing this piece in the hope that Alex Ovechkin would make it unnecessary, but after his recent effort against the Flyers on Saturday night, it is clear: Ovechkin has somehow lost his mojo. This is not to say that Ovechkin has become an ineffectual player, or that he is no longer one of the league’s best players. His 26 points this season are tied with teammate Alexander Semin and division rival Martin St. Louis for third in the NHL, behind only Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby. He is tied with a couple other players for tenth in goals scored with 10. Ovechkin is tied for fourth in the league with 68 hits. His 21:22 time on ice/game is fifth in the league for forwards, and his time on ice/shift at 61.0 seconds is tied for the highest for forwards with Evgeni Malkin. These stats show Ovechkin is clearly having an impact on the NHL’s best team this season (the Capitals have a league best 30 points).

But there are plenty of other stats that show he is slightly off this season. He is third in the league in shots with 86, but normally Ovechkin shoots far more than anyone else in the NHL. For example, last season his 368 shots were 21 more than the next highest shooter, Zach Parise (and also the fewest of Ovechkin’s career). However, Ovechkin played in nine less games than Parise, so he averaged 5.11 shots/game compared to Parise’s 4.28. Last season, Ovechkin has a +/- of 45 which was second best in the league (teammate Jeff Schultz was the only player with a  higher +/-, and the Caps had the top four, and five of the top 6 in that category) but currently he only has a +/- of 4. That is tied for 97^th among all NHL players, and tied for seventh best among the Capitals (with Schultz). Now +/- is obviously a statistic with some issues, and I am not suggesting that Tomas Fleischmann has been better than Ovechkin because he sports a better +/- ranking. But it does illustrate that not only is Ovechkin not deserving of the NHL MVP so far this season, he does not even deserve to be the Caps’ team MVP. So far this season (in no particular order), Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Michal Neuvirth have all been more valuable to the team.

Subjectively, it also seems that Ovechkin is not playing to his elite standards. Against the Flyers he missed opportunities to score on a breakaway and on a 2-on-1 , and had the puck taken away from him on multiple occasions (he has 18 giveaways in 21 games this season). Unfortunately, this game was not an outlier but a good example of a trend, as Ovechkin has not capitalized on some of his best chances throughout the season. There have also been shifts this season where his intensity can be questioned, as he seems to just circle around the blue lines waiting for the puck to come to him. And while this is probably an unfair criticism, missing this season have been the “magical” plays that leave fans in sheer wonder, such as scoring from his back while sliding on the ice or speeding up the ice backwards after stealing the puck from an unaware defenseman.

Of course, starting Monday against New Jersey, this could all be forgotten if he goes on a tear. Alan May of CSN brought up a great point that when he plays on a line with Semin and Backstrom, they are so good at handling the puck, passing, and creating takeaways (Semin is tied for first in the NHL with 28 takeaways, Backstrom is right behind him for third with 26) that Ovechkin only needs to worry about getting open and unleashing his monster shot. This is what is currently making Stamkos so valuable—he allows St. Louis to create for him while he positions himself to release his devastating shot. There is no reason to believe that Ovechkin cannot do this and put up numbers that are more in line with his past. Furthermore, Ovechkin ultimately won’t be judged by his season totals, but by what he and the Capitals do in the postseason. He may feel that he needs to pace himself for the playoffs, and that is why his performance has dipped. No matter what the case is, if Ovechkin is not at the top of his game by the playoffs, the Capitals have no shot at the Stanley Cup. So the number one priority for the rest of the season is getting Ovechkin back on his game, or the Caps will fall far short of their goals and have another offseason of soul searching ahead of them.