Let’s have a little thought experiment. Here’s the statistics over the past three years for Mark Buehrle:
2009: 213.1 IP, 4.43 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 3.84 ERA, 3.4 WAR
2010: 210.1 IP, 4.24 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 4.28 ERA, 3.7 WAR
2011: 205.1 IP, 4.78 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, 3.59 ERA, 3.4 WAR
Pretty decent and consistent numbers. But you already knew that Buehrle is decent and consistent. That’s why the Marlins just signed him to a 4-year, $58 million contract, snatching him away from Mike Rizzo and the Nats, who considered Buehrle their number one priority coming into the offseason. Rizzo seems to have balked at both the size and duration of the contract, and I think I have an idea as to why. Take a look at the numbers over the last three years from this mystery player, who we’ll call Mr. X for now:
2009: 214 IP, 6.77 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 3.62 ERA, 3.6 WAR
2010: 209.1 IP, 7.78 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 4.47 ERA, 3.8 WAR
2011: 199.2 IP, 6.67 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 3.79 ERA, 3.8 WAR
Mr. X is practically identical to Buehrle. Yes, Mr. X gives up more walks than Buehrle, but he also gets significantly more strikeouts. It should be noted that Mr. X is right handed, while Buehrle is a southpaw and therefore a slightly rarer commodity, but I would argue Mr. X has been slightly better over the last three years, so they’re essentially the same value. Here’s the catch, though, Mark Buehrle is 31 years old, but Mr. X is only 28. So who is this mystery player, and why is he important? Mr. X is none other than Edwin Jackson, and he’s important because he’s also on the free agent market this winter.
My guess it that Rizzo heard the price for Buehrle, looked at Jackson, and thought, Why should I commit 4 years and $58 million to this 31-year-old, when I could pay $36 million over 3 years for this 28-year-old who might actually be better? Sure, Buehrle has a longer track record, but a track record that only extends to 2009 didn’t stop GMs from fawning over C.J. Wilson (Wilson before 2009: 1.3 WAR. Since: 12.5 WAR). Now, Jackson is a Scott Boras client, and the Nats do have a history of paying exorbitantly for Scott Boras clients (Jayson Werth, anyone?), but even if Rizzo ends up signing Jackson to, say, $50 million over 4 years, is that such a terrible deal (especially when you consider that Jackson has been worth over $15 million each of the last three years according to Fangraphs dollar value metrics)? Now that Wilson has been snatched up by the Angels, Edwin Jackson is certainly the best free agent starting pitcher available, but he might have been the best fit for the Nationals all along.
2009: 213.1 IP, 4.43 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 3.84 ERA, 3.4 WAR
2010: 210.1 IP, 4.24 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 4.28 ERA, 3.7 WAR
2011: 205.1 IP, 4.78 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, 3.59 ERA, 3.4 WAR
Pretty decent and consistent numbers. But you already knew that Buehrle is decent and consistent. That’s why the Marlins just signed him to a 4-year, $58 million contract, snatching him away from Mike Rizzo and the Nats, who considered Buehrle their number one priority coming into the offseason. Rizzo seems to have balked at both the size and duration of the contract, and I think I have an idea as to why. Take a look at the numbers over the last three years from this mystery player, who we’ll call Mr. X for now:
2009: 214 IP, 6.77 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 3.62 ERA, 3.6 WAR
2010: 209.1 IP, 7.78 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 4.47 ERA, 3.8 WAR
2011: 199.2 IP, 6.67 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 3.79 ERA, 3.8 WAR
Mr. X is practically identical to Buehrle. Yes, Mr. X gives up more walks than Buehrle, but he also gets significantly more strikeouts. It should be noted that Mr. X is right handed, while Buehrle is a southpaw and therefore a slightly rarer commodity, but I would argue Mr. X has been slightly better over the last three years, so they’re essentially the same value. Here’s the catch, though, Mark Buehrle is 31 years old, but Mr. X is only 28. So who is this mystery player, and why is he important? Mr. X is none other than Edwin Jackson, and he’s important because he’s also on the free agent market this winter.
My guess it that Rizzo heard the price for Buehrle, looked at Jackson, and thought, Why should I commit 4 years and $58 million to this 31-year-old, when I could pay $36 million over 3 years for this 28-year-old who might actually be better? Sure, Buehrle has a longer track record, but a track record that only extends to 2009 didn’t stop GMs from fawning over C.J. Wilson (Wilson before 2009: 1.3 WAR. Since: 12.5 WAR). Now, Jackson is a Scott Boras client, and the Nats do have a history of paying exorbitantly for Scott Boras clients (Jayson Werth, anyone?), but even if Rizzo ends up signing Jackson to, say, $50 million over 4 years, is that such a terrible deal (especially when you consider that Jackson has been worth over $15 million each of the last three years according to Fangraphs dollar value metrics)? Now that Wilson has been snatched up by the Angels, Edwin Jackson is certainly the best free agent starting pitcher available, but he might have been the best fit for the Nationals all along.
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