What should the Nats offer in a trade for Colby Rasmus?

As Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Dispatch recently reported, the St. Louis Cardinals might soon put Colby Rasmus on the trade market. Formerly a highly touted prospect, the 24-year-old center fielder sports a career .259/.333/.442 triple-slash in two and a half years in the big leagues. In his report, Strauss cites difficulties between Rasmus and manager Tony La Russa as a possible motivation for GM John Mozeliak to make a move, and based on Rasmus’ minor league career, I imagine that the Cardinals front office expected better than the .329 wOBA they’ve gotten from him this year. That said, it will still take a pretty good haul to pry Rasmus away, and the Cardinals seem to want at least one starting pitcher, with Strauss mentioning the Tampa Bay Rays and their stable of arms as a possible trade partner.

Given the Nats well documented interest in B.J. Upton, they would presumably at least inquire on Rasmus as well, and are probably even more interested in Rasmus, since he is younger and under contract through 2014. Indeed, if Rasmus could continue to play even a passable CF, his bat would be a significant upgrade over Roger Bernadina, and acquiring him would add another solid young position player to the Nats core of Zimmerman, Espinosa, Ramos, and Desmond. So what exactly would it take to get him? The short answer is, obviously, we don’t really know. But as stated previously, the Cardinals probably want the deal to center around a starting pitcher.

In his most recent chat, Dave Cameron suggested that both the Rays and the Cardinals would at least have to think about a Rasmus for James Shields swap, if it came up in negotiations, and I would definitely have to agree from the Cardinals perspective. Shields has been ace-caliber this season and has a very team-friendly contract with club options starting next year through 2014. His performance this year might even improve if he were to get out of the AL East, and the Cardinals rotation would look pretty formidable for this year’s pennant race. He will be 30 by next season though, and is coming off a very rough year in 2010, so he’s unlikely to maintain this level of performance too much longer, and may in fact fall off dramatically.

Still, if a pitcher of that caliber is the price, then the only way the Nats could match it would be Jordan Zimmermann, who has been the Nats best pitcher this year and is under team control through 2015. JZ, with his 2.58 FIP and miniscule 1.64 BB/9, was my pick for the all-star team from the Nats; he looks fully recovered from Tommy John surgery from a year ago, and at 25, there’s still room for improvement. He’d be a tough player for the Nats to give up under any circumstances, but he does have a history of injuries, and unless he can increase his strikeout rate (6.42 K/9 this year, 7.62 career), his ceiling is as a #2 starter in a good rotation. The Nats just don’t have a ton of pitching depth, though, and JZ seems like the perfect guy to follow Stephen Strasburg in the rotation once Strasburg returns from his own ligament replacement surgery, so I just don’t see GM Mike Rizzo making that kind of move.

That being said, I’m not so sure it would take a guy like Zimmermann to get Rasmus. As Steve Slowinski points out, it will be pretty difficult for the Cardinals to get good value for Rasmus at this stage, since the Cardinals will want to base his value on potential, while other teams will want to buy based on his career thusfar. With that in mind, perhaps the Nats could try to package one of their veteran pitchers with a prospect to get Rasmus. Livan Hernandez is a fan favorite, sure, but his talents are wasted on this year’s Nats team; he’d make for a solid back of the rotation starter for the Cards to rest their bullpen during the dog days of August. Jason Marquis could fill a similar role, and maybe after reuniting Dave Duncan, Marquis could turn back the clock for a couple months to his 2004 season with the Cardinals, when he sported a 3.71 ERA.

Naturally, the more vital part of the equation from the Nats perspective is which prospect they would give up. The Cardinals would probably have interest in a guy like Derek Norris even though they have Yadier Molina, but I don’t imagine the Nats giving up their consensus #2 prospect for Rasmus. Beyond that though, the Nats farm system doesn’t feature too much in the way of bats, so the Cardinals would probably ask for someone like A.J. Cole or Sammy Solis, both of whom were on the Nats top 10 prospects lists of various publications. Brad Peacock has been dominating AA this year, sporting a ridiculous 5.61 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 98 innings so far this season. At 23, Peacock is probably closer to the majors than the other two, which may increase his value to the win-now Cardinals.

As you might have surmised by now, the question posed in the title of this post is a tough one. Colby Rasmus is a solid every day player who is still young enough to have potential for greatness, and the Nationals are interested in an every day center fielder to anchor their outfield for the next several years. But Rasmus has been merely a good player so far in his career, not a great one, and it’s tough for a team like the Nats to give up big time prospects in exchange for a player whose track record suggests only a decent player. I think if the Nats offered one of Peacock, Cole, or Solis plus either Livo or Marquis for Rasmus, it’d be a fine deal for the Nats. I doubt it'd be enough for John Mozeliak, but I don’t think the Nats ought to offer more.