Thursday, July 28, 2011

Jonny Gomes???

Let me tell you a little secret: I actually kinda like Jonny Gomes as a baseball player. He’s the type of guy who can add real value in the right situation. From a strictly offensive perspective, I like the idea of Gomes platooning with Laynce Nix in left field for the Nats. The guy crushes lefties, to the tune of a .281/.377/.511 career line versus southpaws.

Alas, the National League requires players to play in the field, and let’s just say that’s not Jonny Gomes’ forte. He’s got a career UZR of -38 in the outfield, and anyone who watches him can see why. Maybe he’s not as bad a fielder as Adam Dunn, but he’s also not nearly as a good a hitter as Dunn (was). Gomes really ought to just be a DH, and even then, he should probably be platooning with someone who can hit right handed pitching (Gomes’ line against righties this year: .171/.305/.354 in 199 PAs. Ouch.). From what Mike Rizzo said in his press conference following the trade, it doesn’t sound like the Nats intend to use him in the field much, but more as a situational bench guy who comes in against lefties. And that sounds about right, but why would the Nats trade for a guy like that?

Now, it’s not as if they gave up a whole lot for Gomes. Bill Rhinehart has been a great story this year, tearing up Double-A with a .280/.375/.579 line, but at 26 years old, Rhinehart is only 2 months younger than Ryan Zimmerman, so he’s not exactly a prospect. Chris Manno is probably the highlight of the deal for the Reds, since he’s only 22, but he’s also a strictly relief pitcher who’s still in A ball. Again, not much of a prospect.

The Nats acquired a right handed bat off the bench for two (essentially) organizational guys, and to be honest, I can see myself liking the move, with one caveat: this is the type of move contenders make. The Nats saw a weakness on their roster (a dearth of right handed hitters off the bench) and made a move for a solid veteran to fill the void, and it makes the team marginally better right now. A solid move for a contending team. But the Nats aren’t contenders this year. And at age 30, Jonny Gomes is not going to get any better in the years to come. How exactly does this move help the Nats organization in the future?

Sure, Gomes projects as a type B free agent, which could yield a supplemental draft pick for the Nats, but that’s assuming Gomes rejects an arbitration offer. He’s already been non-tendered twice in his career, and there’s not a whole lot of teams on the lookout for a DH who cannot hit righties. What’s the incentive for Gomes to reject arbitration? Where else is he going to go? And if he accepts arbitration, are the Nats really comfortable paying a guy $1.75 mil (the value of his current contract and in the range of what Gomes is likely to get from arbitration) for a situational bench player who is likely to decline even further next year? Honestly, the only rationale I can see for the Nats to acquire Jonny Gomes is to then use him in a trade for some other player.

My initial thought (or perhaps the word is hope) was that the Nats had some other deal in place, much like the deal yesterday that sent Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays. The Nats have a long standing interest in the Rays’ center fielder B.J. Upton, and I look at the Rays roster and see that they have the left handed hitting Johnny Damon as their DH. Against lefties this year, Damon’s running a .255/.306/.368 line, good for a measly .298 wOBA. The Rays also lack organizational depth at the catcher position. The more I look at a (purely hypothetical) trade where the Nats send one of their catchers (Norris, Ramos, or Flores) and Gomes to the Rays for Upton, the more I see a good fit for both sides. The Nats get their center fielder for the long term while the Rays not only get a guy who could help them contend this year if they feel they’re still in the hunt, but also a long term option at catcher. If the Nats plan to use Gomes as a throw in for that sort of trade, then I’ll be really happy and, frankly, impressed with Mike Rizzo’s cunning. If not, then I just don’t see the point of trading for Jonny Gomes. Time will tell.

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