Lack of talent for Orioles shows in standings

As we enter the last two months of the regular season, the Orioles have only four position players who have accrued more than one win above replacement this season according to Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, and Nick Markakis (both have all four as above 1 WAR and have no other Orioles position players reaching that threshold). According to Fangraphs, all non-DH Yankee position player starters have over 1 WAR, and Baseball-Reference lists seven (Derek Jeter being the only one not to have accrued 1 rWAR yet). The four Orioles have a combined 9 fWAR—Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez have combined for 8.8 fWAR. Jones, Wieters, Hardy, and Markakis have combined for 6.9 rWAR—or .3 rWAR below the sum of Brett Gardner and Granderson’s rWAR. The picture is not any prettier looking at the rest of the division. Carl Crawford is the only Boston starter with a fWAR below one, and Scutaro joins him according to Baseball-Reference, leaving seven Red Sox with 1+ rWAR (like the Yankees). Adam Jones’ team-leading 2.8 fWAR and Matt Wieter’s team-leading 2.3 rWAR are dwarfed by Dustin Pedroia’s 6.7 fWAR and 6.1 rWAR. Tampa has seven players with 1+ fWAR and nine players with 1+ rWAR. Toronto has a similar amount of +1 WAR starters—but they also have arguably the best player in baseball in Jose Bautista and a resurgent Yunel Escobar who are clearly superior to anyone on the Orioles.

The pitching viewpoint isn’t any prettier. Zach Britton has the highest fWAR, but that is damning with faint praise, as he has only accumulated 1.7 fWAR. Worse, in his last two divisional starts he has pitched a combined one inning (!) and allowed 17 runs (but only 13 earned…). Regardless of whether you prefer rWAR or fWAR for pitching, each team has at least one dominant pitcher where the Orioles have none. Ricky Romero for Toronto, James Shields and David Price for Tampa, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester for Boston, and CC Sabathia for New York clearly outclass any of our pitchers. Even more galling is how our division rivals are able to turn retreads such as Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Matt Albers (former Oriole) into valuable pitchers while the Orioles turn retreads Mike Gonzalez and Kevin Gregg into even worse retreads, and transform the team’s most promising pitcher, Brian Matusz, into a pitcher who has been worth -.5 fWAR and -.9 rWAR.

Today, the standings show the Orioles 25 games behind the Yankees in the division (and 24 behind the Red Sox). The reason is simple—the Orioles do not have anywhere near the talent that the rest of the teams in the division do. And as this is not likely to change anytime soon, Orioles fans should become even more accustomed to residing in the basement in the AL East.