For the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays (and theoretically, the Baltimore Orioles), the margin for error is so small because they have to compete directly with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, the juggernauts of baseball. It is natural to wonder what Tampa and Toronto would be able to accomplish if they played in any division other than the AL East. Well, one way to examine the issue is with Baseball-Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS), which measures the number of runs/game each team is better or worse than the average team. The factors used to determine this are run differential and strength of schedule. Tampa and Toronto have an SRS of .4. While that may not look impressive, the only teams with a better SRS are the Yankees (1.7), Red Sox (1.3), Phillies (1.1), and the Rangers (.9), with the Braves also having a rating of .4. By this system, four of the top eight teams in all of baseball are in the AL East, and the Rays and Blue Jays are better than any team from the AL Central, NL Central, or NL West. While this might be a bit hyperbolic, it seems clear that the Rays and Blue Jays would be able to compete in any of those divisions. Fans of those teams could be getting excited over a pennant race, instead of knowing that their season is going nowhere.
And in case you’re wondering how the Orioles would be outside of the division—they would still be awful. The only teams with a worse SRS than the Orioles’ -.9 are the Cubs (-1 SRS) and the Astros (-1.2 SRS). So put the Orioles in any division besides the NL Central, and they are still comfortably in last. Put the O’s in the NL Central, and they might not be last, but they wouldn’t be anywhere near the top either.
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