Friday, February 10, 2012

Should the Nats Employ a Six-Man Rotation?

Ever since the Nationals signed Edwin Jackson to a one year, $11 million contract, the team has faced something of a conundrum: what should they do with all of their pitching? Looking at the roster as currently constructed, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, earlier offseason acquisition Gio Gonzalez, and now Jackson are firmly set as the top 4 pitchers in the rotation. Chien-Ming Wang is likely the 5th starter by default, since he is out of options and cannot be traded until May since he technically signed as a free agent during the offseason. That leaves John Lannan as the odd man out of a 5-man rotation, but the Nats owe Lannan $5 million this year, and that’s a lot of money to pay a minor league pitcher.


The Nats have shopped Lannan around on the trade market, but they are unlikely to get a good return on a guy like Lannan. My fellow Crazy-(Good)-Eighter Drew first suggested to me that the Nats could use a 6-man rotation in order to extract some value from Lannan at the major league level, and now that Adam Kilgore has summarized the roster situation going into spring training, I’m beginning to think such an arrangement might be possible, if a little complicated.


Ideally, adding a sixth man would be a simple matter of moving a pitcher destined for the bullpen into the starting rotation. As Kilgore points out, though, the Nats already have seven pitchers bound for the bullpen, and none of them are John Lannan. Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Henry Rodriguez, Sean Burnett, and newly-signed Brad Lidge are all pretty much entrenched. Meanwhile, both Tom Gorzelanny and Ross Detwiler are out of options, meaning the Nats would almost certainly lose the rights to these players if the team attempted to send them to the minors. Would the Nats dare carry 13 pitchers on their roster, leaving only 12 position players?


Kilgore predicts Rick Ankiel will be the starting centerfielder on Opening Day, but Ankiel will likely be part of a (decidedly unsavory) platoon with Mike Cameron, who would start against opposing lefties. That leaves 4 other players on the bench: back up catcher Jesus Flores, 5th outfielder Roger Bernadina, and utility infielders Mark DeRosa and Steve Lombardozzi. Kilgore correctly points out, though, that Lombardozzi really ought to be playing every day, yet he is currently blocked by Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond in the middle infield. I contend that the Nats should leave Lombardozzi in Syracuse for further development and keep Lannan on the major league roster as a 6th starter. Sure, having 13 pitchers on the roster carries some risk, especially in the National League where multiple pinch hitters are needed per game, but at this point I should point out an added benefit of a six-man rotation in the Nats’ current situation.


The Nats have several pitchers, namely Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Wang, whose innings will be limited this season due to recent health concerns. If the Nats intend, as I’m sure they do, to play meaningful games in September and (if they catch a few breaks) October, then they will surely want their best pitchers available. A six-man rotation to start the season allows the Nats at least some of this flexibility, as it would allow Strasburg and Zimmermann an extra day of rest. One of the pitchers will inevitably get hurt, at which point the Nats can revert to a traditional five-man rotation. Or Lannan will impress to the point that the Nats will start to receive palatable trade offers. To me, the benefits of giving Strasburg and Zimmermann a chance to contribute late in the season, combined with nurturing the development of Lombardozzi and avoiding paying $5 million to a minor league player outweigh the costs of giving a pitcher an extra plate appearance every once in a while at the beginning of the season.

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