Hall of Fame vs. Hall of Merit

It isn’t even December yet, but I am already looking forward to baseball starting again in the spring. Luckily, besides the Derek Jeter contract saga, the offseason brings into focus one of my favorite things about baseball: The Hall of Fame. Set in Cooperstown, New York, the Baseball Hall of Fame honors the greatest players to ever play the game and is a museum on the rich history of baseball. I love comparing baseball players among all eras to see how they matchup with each other, and the Hall of Fame provides a great context in which to do so.

Each winter, the Hall of Fame decides which players, if any, will be the newest inductees into Cooperstown, and this sets off the greatest and most contentious debate in all of baseball. Some people believe the Hall of Fame is too lax with its standards for admission, while others think it is too stingy. Since I think the Hall of Fame is a starting point for fans learning about baseball history, I personally believe in a larger Hall of Fame rather than a small one; I don’t get worked up when a borderline candidate, such as Jim Rice, is inducted in, but I do get upset when deserving players (at least in my mind) do not make the cut (Lou Whitaker is my personal favorite example). My theory is that fans, when learning about Rice, will find out about his flaws as a candidate as well as his strengths that carried him into the Hall of Fame, but that a player who doesn’t make it can fall through the cracks and be forgotten.

Some baseball fans and history enthusiasts became fed up with the Hall of Fame’s selection process and decided they could do better. Starting in 2003, they created the Baseball Hall of Merit, designed to be a counterpoint to the Hall of Fame. All based online, anyone can create a ballot for the Hall of Merit; all that new voters must do is post their ballot prior to election and explain how they came to their conclusions to show they have put serious consideration into their ballot. Players are eligible for induction in the same way that they are for the Hall of Fame; the Hall of Merit chose 1898 as the first year to have a ballot and worked their way to the present, having caught up in time with the Hall of Fame. I thought it would be interesting to compare the two bodies and see where they differ.

When organizing the Hall of Merit ballot, the founders conceived it a little differently than the Hall of Fame ballot. A BBWAA voter for the Hall of Fame can vote for up to ten players, with each vote being equal. If a player gets 75% of the voters to select him, then he is a Hall of Famer. However, a voter has the freedom to vote for less than ten, depending on how he feels about the players on the ballot. If a player does not get 5% of voters to select him, or if he does not get elected in fifteen years, he drops from the ballot (although he can still be elected in by the Veterans Committee). For the Hall of Merit, each year was given a pre-ordained number of inductees (for example, there would be guaranteed two new Hall of Meriters for the 1905 election, but only one for the 1906 election). Each voter then must vote for 15 players and rank them. Each rank earns points, with it being weighted so first place receives the most points, etc. and the player(s) who received the most points are inducted. Furthermore, a player can stay eligible for the Hall of Merit as long as voters are willing to keep him on their ballots.

This has some advantages over the Hall of Fame system. For one, when the original Hall of Fame class of Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, and Walter Johnson were elected without receiving 100% of the votes, a precedent was set that no one should receive 100% of the vote, even though there are many players who everyone can agree are Hall of Fame worthy. This is not an issue with the Hall of Merit, as fifteen players have unanimously been selected first (Hank Aaron, Wade Boggs, Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, Lefty Grove, Rickey Henderson, Walter Johnson, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt, Honus Wagner, Ted Williams, and Cy Young). Furthermore, allowing players to stay on the ballot forever really allowed voters to study the nuances that might separate one candidate from another, and in years when there were no overwhelming new candidates, players were elected who had been under consideration for an extended period of time (for example, John McGraw was elected in 2009—his 100^th time on the ballot). This works as a de facto Veterans Committee for the Hall of Merit.  There is something to be said, however, about the elegance of the Hall of Fame’s insistence upon receiving 75% of the vote. Because there was no consensus beyond Rickey Henderson for the 2009 voting, McGraw was able to finish second—but he only received 31% of all possible points. One could make the argument that a 31% second place finish is more pluralistic than meritocratic. There is no denying that at least the 75% seems more legitimate than 31%.

But most importantly (and interestingly), let’s compare who these two bodies have inducted:

Hall of Merit: 240 players

·         63 pitchers

·         26 center fielders

·         26 shortstops

·         23 left fielders

·         22 second basemen

·         21 right fielders

·         20 catchers

·         19 first basemen

·         19 third basemen

·         1 designated hitter (Edgar Martinez)

Hall of Fame: 232 players (292 members which include umpires, managers, and executives)

·         71 pitchers

·         25 center fielders

·         23 shortstops

·         23 right fielders

·         21 first basemen

·         20 left fielders

·         19 second basemen

·         16 catchers

·         14 third basemen

The Hall of Merit and Hall of Fame similarly skew in their totals for each position, although the Hall of Merit has fewer pitchers and uses the leftover amount for third basemen and catchers. There are 64 players (just over 26%) in the Hall of Merit who are not in the Hall of Fame, while there are 56 players (just over 24%) in the Hall of Fame who are not in the Hall of Merit (although it should be noted that some players in the Hall of Merit were inducted into the Hall of Fame in a different capacity, such as a manager or executive, and that the Hall of Merit includes Joe Jackson and Pete Rose, who would be in the Hall of Fame if they had not been expelled from the game). These percentages are similar on purpose, as the Hall of Merit has actively tried to stay the same size as the Hall of Fame to better serve as a foil against Cooperstown. Part of the initial movement for the Hall of Merit was based on how the founders felt the Hall of Fame had done a poor job with the earliest baseball players and Negro League players. The first class of the Hall of Merit consisted of Deacon White (C), Paul Hines (CF), George Gore (CF), and Ross Barnes (2B), all stars from the 1800s who are not in the Hall of Fame. The Hall of Fame improved its Negro League representation by having a special election for Negro League players in 2006. The Hall of Fame now has 28 players who spent most if not all of their careers in the Negro Leagues (for example, this counts Satchel Paige but not Monte Irvin or Jackie Robinson), while the Hall of Merit has 29. However, the two groups have not elected all the same Negro League stars. Slightly more than 21% (6/28) Negro League Hall of Famers have not been elected to the Hall of Merit, while roughly 24% (7/29) Negro League Hall of Meriters have not been elected to the Hall of Fame. It seems clear that both groups should devote more than just 12% of their inductees to Negro Leaguers, as there were many talented players who were unfortunately not allowed to compete at the major league level due solely to their skin color.

I also looked at the career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) totals for the players elected to these two groups to see if there were any noticeable baselines. Normally, I prefer Fangraphs’ version of WAR, but they do not have historical WAR for pitchers, so I used Sean Smith/Baseball Reference’s version. Obviously WAR is not a be all/end all, but I wanted a quick and dirty way to compare players from all eras while looking at these two groups, and WAR is a great system to use. Unfortunately, WAR has even more limits in this project, as obviously this excludes the Negro League players along with position players before 1871 and pitchers before 1876 (for example, Dickey Pearce, a SS in the Hall of Merit but not in the Hall of Fame, has a career 8.3 WAR which seems awful until you realize it doesn’t include his seasons from 1856-1870). I assumed that the Hall of Merit, which embraces sabermetrics, would have players with much higher career WARs. While this is partially true, it does not play out as much as I thought. For example, Cal McVey, a catcher in the 1870s, was elected to the Hall of Merit even though he only had a career 23.0 WAR. McVey was rewarded for his durability at a position that was extremely hard to play at that time. By comparison, in the Hall of Fame, the lowest WAR belongs to 1880/90s RF Tommy McCarthy. Looking at his 19.0 WAR (and any of his other stats, except for possibly his stolen bases), it is difficult to see how he was elected. However, he was apparently a savvy tactician who came up with the hit and run, among other things. The other side of the WAR spectrum is slightly more telling. The highest WAR for a Hall of Famer not in the Hall of Merit is 57.2 (Vic Willis). There are 25 players in the Hall of Merit who have a higher WAR than 57.2 who are not in the Hall of Fame, led by Bert Blyleven and his 90.1 WAR. Besides Blyleven, Barry Larkin, Roberto Alomar, Tim Raines, and Allan Trammell are some examples of those 25 who are still eligible to be inducted by the Hall of Fame, and hopefully will be soon.

The reason I am writing about all this now is that the Hall of Merit’s 2011 ballots are due on November 29^th. They like to announce their results before the Hall of Fame, who will also be announcing results shortly. The Veterans Committee will announce December 6^th who they have inducted into the Hall of Fame, while the BBWAA ballot should be released shortly, and the results tallied in early January. It’s an exciting time for baseball, even if no games are being played.

Ovechkin's Lost Mojo

I have avoided writing this piece in the hope that Alex Ovechkin would make it unnecessary, but after his recent effort against the Flyers on Saturday night, it is clear: Ovechkin has somehow lost his mojo. This is not to say that Ovechkin has become an ineffectual player, or that he is no longer one of the league’s best players. His 26 points this season are tied with teammate Alexander Semin and division rival Martin St. Louis for third in the NHL, behind only Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby. He is tied with a couple other players for tenth in goals scored with 10. Ovechkin is tied for fourth in the league with 68 hits. His 21:22 time on ice/game is fifth in the league for forwards, and his time on ice/shift at 61.0 seconds is tied for the highest for forwards with Evgeni Malkin. These stats show Ovechkin is clearly having an impact on the NHL’s best team this season (the Capitals have a league best 30 points).

But there are plenty of other stats that show he is slightly off this season. He is third in the league in shots with 86, but normally Ovechkin shoots far more than anyone else in the NHL. For example, last season his 368 shots were 21 more than the next highest shooter, Zach Parise (and also the fewest of Ovechkin’s career). However, Ovechkin played in nine less games than Parise, so he averaged 5.11 shots/game compared to Parise’s 4.28. Last season, Ovechkin has a +/- of 45 which was second best in the league (teammate Jeff Schultz was the only player with a  higher +/-, and the Caps had the top four, and five of the top 6 in that category) but currently he only has a +/- of 4. That is tied for 97^th among all NHL players, and tied for seventh best among the Capitals (with Schultz). Now +/- is obviously a statistic with some issues, and I am not suggesting that Tomas Fleischmann has been better than Ovechkin because he sports a better +/- ranking. But it does illustrate that not only is Ovechkin not deserving of the NHL MVP so far this season, he does not even deserve to be the Caps’ team MVP. So far this season (in no particular order), Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Michal Neuvirth have all been more valuable to the team.

Subjectively, it also seems that Ovechkin is not playing to his elite standards. Against the Flyers he missed opportunities to score on a breakaway and on a 2-on-1 , and had the puck taken away from him on multiple occasions (he has 18 giveaways in 21 games this season). Unfortunately, this game was not an outlier but a good example of a trend, as Ovechkin has not capitalized on some of his best chances throughout the season. There have also been shifts this season where his intensity can be questioned, as he seems to just circle around the blue lines waiting for the puck to come to him. And while this is probably an unfair criticism, missing this season have been the “magical” plays that leave fans in sheer wonder, such as scoring from his back while sliding on the ice or speeding up the ice backwards after stealing the puck from an unaware defenseman.

Of course, starting Monday against New Jersey, this could all be forgotten if he goes on a tear. Alan May of CSN brought up a great point that when he plays on a line with Semin and Backstrom, they are so good at handling the puck, passing, and creating takeaways (Semin is tied for first in the NHL with 28 takeaways, Backstrom is right behind him for third with 26) that Ovechkin only needs to worry about getting open and unleashing his monster shot. This is what is currently making Stamkos so valuable—he allows St. Louis to create for him while he positions himself to release his devastating shot. There is no reason to believe that Ovechkin cannot do this and put up numbers that are more in line with his past. Furthermore, Ovechkin ultimately won’t be judged by his season totals, but by what he and the Capitals do in the postseason. He may feel that he needs to pace himself for the playoffs, and that is why his performance has dipped. No matter what the case is, if Ovechkin is not at the top of his game by the playoffs, the Capitals have no shot at the Stanley Cup. So the number one priority for the rest of the season is getting Ovechkin back on his game, or the Caps will fall far short of their goals and have another offseason of soul searching ahead of them.

Sigh of Relief?

Going to sleep after Monday night’s 59-28 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Redskins fans had more on their minds than the staggering defeat. What was most upsetting was the report that the Redskins had signed quarterback Donovan McNabb to a $78 million extension, $40 million of which was guaranteed. For a quarterback in his mid-30s who had just been benched because the coaching staff did not have faith in his ability to lead the 2 minute drill and whose performance throughout the season has been average at best, this seemed to make no sense. Except that it made perfect sense to Redskins fans, who have become resigned to the fact that Daniel Snyder is determined to sabotage his team by making terrible personnel decisions.

Luckily Tuesday brought some better news. If McNabb is cut in the offseason, then the Redskins will only be on the hook for $3.75 million. Assuming McNabb plays at the same level as he has so far this season, which seems likely, there is no reason to keep him. McNabb has 9 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season (his last game without an interception was in Week 2), and it has become painfully clear that the Redskins need to rebuild on offense (and after the way the Eagles performed on Monday, maybe the defense too).

But of course, it’s never that simple for the Redskins. Snyder is allergic to rebuilding, and I’m sure Mike Shanahan didn’t come out of retirement for a bunch of losing seasons. That is why I expect in the offseason the Redskins will make the boldest move in the offseason (once again) by signing Michael Vick to an 8 year, $175 million deal this offseason. If Tom Brady could pull off a 4 year, $72 million extension at 33, then Snyder can convince himself that this is a fair market deal, besides the absurdity of it. This is not to say that Vick hasn’t been great this season; his performance against the Redskins highlighted how much he has improved as a quarterback. While he is still a dynamic runner, he first checked all his reads to see if receivers were open, and made throws ranging from deep bombs to across-the-field screens with the perfect touch. The problem (besides the issues of Vick’s past criminal behavior) is his ability to stay healthy. Vick has already missed three games this season due to injury, and the number of hits he would take playing behind the Redskins offensive line only magnifies the risk. Not to mention, Vick has excellent help at the skill positions with the Eagles, while the Redskins have the opposite problem. For the money Vick would demand from the Redskins, the investment is not worth it.

But when has this stopped Snyder before? Vick’s performance at FedEx field not only vaunted the Eagles as one of the favorites (if not the favorite) to advance to the Super Bowl from the NFC, but probably ensured him a huge payday. Unfortunately for Redskins fans, if they do sign Vick, he won’t be able to play against the Redskins defense when the new season starts.

Mailbag

Time for a Mailbag! The mailbag is the best blog gimmick in existence, no reason for me not to use it. These are actual questions from an actual reader (thanks Steve).

What do you think of your boy Portis? LeBron-esque move?

Steve is referring to Clinton Portis wearing a Phillies hat to practice the week the Redskins are playing the Philadelphia Eagles. Frankly, I don’t really care. Portis is not overly beloved by Redskins fans (he’s certainly not my boy) the way LeBron was in Cleveland, and he is not from the local area like LeBron was being from Akron, so there is no expectation that Portis would support the Nationals. Portis said he just didn’t even think about it, and I see no reason not to believe him. The Redskins have much bigger issues than whether Portis wears the right hat, especially if he doesn’t play in the game on Monday night. One such issue is who will run the 2 minute drill in that game, or whether the Redskins will be competitive enough for that to relevant.

What do you think of the Nationals front office?

At this point, it’s too early to tell. Mike Rizzo so far seems to have done a pretty good job, and his talent at scouting and drafting will be crucial for any long-term success the Nationals want to have. The two big points so far this offseason seem to revolve around acquiring a #1 starting pitcher and what happens with Adam Dunn. Obviously, a #1 starter would be great, but what are the odds of the Nationals acquiring one and how much would it cost. By all means see what Cliff Lee is looking for, but if it is 5-6 years at 150-160 million dollars (for comparison, CC Sabathia’s deal with the Yankees is 7 years, 161 million dollars), does that take too much out of the payroll to field a competitive lineup? The Nationals lineup is already thin, and will be even more so if Dunn is not re-signed. There have been rumors that if the Nationals cannot sign Lee (which is likely) then they will try to trade for Zach Greinke  from the Kansas City Royals. To do that, the Nats would need to trade away a bunch of young prospects, which are supposed to be forming the core of the team. Is that trade worthwhile? I don’t know, and that’s why Rizzo gets paid the big bucks. It’ll certainly be interesting to see what he does.

In regards to Dunn, I originally thought it was worth bringing Dunn back, even with his awful defense, because of the presence he brought to the lineup. Dunn was second on the Nats in wOBA (.379) and wRC+ (139) behind Ryan Zimmerman and without him, pitchers would be much less likely to pitch to Zimmerman. But in Keith Law’s most recent chat, he mentioned that Dunn apparently complained to reporter John Fay about how sometimes Zimmerman’s errant throws would bruise Dunn’s arms. Is that the type of player you want on your team?  I’m also concerned that his walk rate dropped to 11.9%, the lowest of his career and that his skills will deteriorate quickly now that he is on the wrong side of 30. Of course, there aren’t any great free agent 1B available, as Aubrey Huff, Carlos Pena, and Derek Lee are the best available besides Dunn. Rumor has it that Rizzo really loves Pena for his defense, and who knows, maybe he can have an offensive resurgence a la Huff. Ultimately, it probably won’t be fair to start judging Rizzo until 2012, when we can see what he has done this offseason and how the farm system is developing.

Sunday Night Baseball No Longer The Same

ESPN announced today that Jon Miller and Joe Morgan would not be doing next season’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts together, after having spent the past 21 years as ESPN’s top baseball announcing tandem. Morgan’s contract will not be renewed, according to the release, whereas it is possible that Miller will remain as the play-by-play announcer.

Many people will be glad that Morgan is done announcing, as his analysis was derided by plenty in the sabermetric community since he focused on RBIS, Wins, and “heart”. While I admit that listening to him at the end of his career could sometimes be painful, I will always appreciate the insights and enthusiasm he brought to the game. I spent many a Sunday night growing up listening to Miller and Morgan, plus many playoff games on the radio when I was supposed to be sleeping, and it just seems weird to think the two won’t be announcing games together. In some respects they were like the Pat Summerall and John Madden for baseball--a dynamic duo in the sport who worked great together and gave you exactly what you were looking for. Hopefully Miller (and his amazing yellow shirt) will stay so we can keep listening to his Hall of Fame voice announce some of the most important games of the season, and we can remember that Morgan, while no longer announcing, can still have pride not only in his Hall of Fame playing career, where he became one of the five best second basemen of all time, but of his 21 years standing in the booth, always stating, “It’s great to be here Jon.” It was usually great to be with them, and they will be missed.

Defying Comprehension

There are plenty of things that defy comprehension in sports; here is a list of recent things that I can’t explain. This could become a recurring segment on the blog.

• I understand that radio hotheads like Colin Cowherd go after John Wall for dancing during his intro because it is easy material for radio talk, even though the coaches asked Wall to do it to pump up the crowd and Wall seems as down-to-earth as any 20 year old in the NBA can be. What I don’t understand is why Cowherd used Rajon Rondo as the standard for NBA point guards instead of Chris Paul or Steve Nash. Don’t get me wrong, Rondo is a great player and at least one of the top-five point guards right now, if not top three. But he is also the guy who got cut by Team USA in favor of Derrick Rose, Chauncey Billups, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, and Stephen Curry because he can’t shoot. Cowherd even said that Rondo is headed towards the Hall of Fame—maybe that is true, maybe not. But the odds are better for that being true for Paul and Nash, who have a longer span of greatness than Rondo—especially when it comes to shooting.
• A 1980 “Miracle on Ice” gold medal was sold for $310,700 in auction on Friday. It seems hard to believe that you can buy/sell Olympic gold medals—it just seems wrong. Isn’t this against the entire spirit of the Olympics, that anyone with the will, desire, and talent to compete at the highest levels of Olympic sports can win an Olympic medal—that it isn’t something that only the rich and powerful can get? Or is that all just a marketing pipedream? Either way, this seems like a sad day in regards to that Miracle on Ice team and the Olympics in general.
• The Golden State Warriors are 4-1! I’m guessing they can’t keep it up no matter how well Curry and Monta Ellis keep on playing, but it sure would be exciting if they made the playoffs (especially if they were to face Dallas).
• Patrick Sharp is tied for the lead in goals scored in the NHL with ten and has 16 points on the season…and yet is a -10 in +/-. This is partially explained by the fact that he has four power play goals, four power play assists, and one shorthanded goal which do not factor in his +/-, but his -10 is also the worst mark on the Blackhawks.
• Only four of the top ten players in shots on goal have a positive +/- (Alex Ovechkin, Bobby Ryan, Jeff Carter, and Martin St. Louis). You would think that more shots on goal and more time in the offensive zone would lead to more goals for and fewer goals against, but that does not seem to be entirely the case so far. I realize +/- is a flawed individual statistic, especially this early in the season, but it still is interesting to look at.
• Vince Young is ranked first in Quarterback Rating, with a 103.1 mark! Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, David Garrard, and Tom Brady round out the top five. I have no idea how quarterback rating is calculated, but if it ranks VY as the best quarterback, well, I have to believe the system knows what it’s talking about.
• The only quarterbacks with a lower QB Rating than Brett Favre this season are Derek Anderson and Matt Moore. The mighty have fallen in Minnesota this season.
• Brandon Lloyd leads the league in receiving yards with 878 yards, and the next closest is Roddy White with 747 yards. Remember when Lloyd couldn’t catch a ball for Washington—seems like yesterday. Well, it was actually 2007, when he was last with the Redskins, but he somehow stayed in the league, in 2008 with Chicago, and then Denver last year and this year. He is finally putting it together, something I thought would never happen.
• Antonio Gates is third in the league in receiving, which isn’t a big deal except that he is a tight end! But he goes deep, as he has the second-most reception of 20+ yards, behind only Lloyd.
• That Derek Jeter hasn’t signed a 4 year, $100 million deal with the Yankees yet. George Steinbrenner never would’ve let the Red Sox get the spotlight with their 1 year, $12.5 million signing of David Ortiz.

Caps Practice

I watched the Capitals practice on Tuesday (a little late on posting, I know) since I had no idea what went into an NHL hockey practice. Here are some observations that I found interesting.

• All the things worked on in practice (line rushes, special teams play, etc.) were done close to full speed. Rather than constantly whistling the action dead to correct/comment on things, the coaches observed from a distance and did not interrupt the players. I don’t know if this is just the style of head coach Bruce Boudreau, the style of the NHL, or the style of hockey practices in general, but I’m sure specific coaches were keeping track of specific players, because otherwise it would be hard to keep meaningful notes of whether players were doing things correctly and what needed to be improved.
• When the Caps were doing line rushes against zero or one defenders and shooting on goal, they still did not score with the frequency you would expect given the advantage in numbers. It just goes to show how hard it is to put the puck past a goalie filling up most of the net when skating quickly on ice.
• Since it was Election Day and kids had school off, there were a bunch of young fans at Caps practice. Naturally, they all crowded against the glass to get the best view of their favorite players. Occasionally a Cap would fire a puck right towards them, which the kids loved—but I’m sure gave their parents a heart attack every time.
• It was really obvious to tell from practice that the only reason D.J. King is on this team is to fight. His skating and stick-handling abilities are poor compared to his teammates’, and he spent a lot of the free moments in practice bumping players, faking going after guys, or showing how quickly he can drop his gloves. His stats in Toronto show all the value he brings to the Caps: 5:17 time on ice, -2 +/-, 5 penalty minutes for a worthless first period fight with Toronto heavyweight Colton Orr.
• Tomas Fleischmann (Flash) floated a saucer pass from the left boards across the width of the ice and sunk it into the bucket that holds the pucks on the right boards on his first attempt. It was a stunning piece of work, and it is no wonder that Boudreau believes highly in his skills if he gets to see displays like that on a normal basis. But as a Caps fan, it is frustrating that Flash can’t make more plays like that on the ice when they count.
• A bunch of players and some coaches ended practice by sticking two hockey sticks in the corners of the goal and trying to hit them on either one or two consecutive shots. It was hard to keep track of from the stands, but I think David Steckel lost.
• After practice, Brooks Laich, Mike Green, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner played the hockey equivalent of 21 for pick-up basketball, although no one took long range shots. The idea was to use your stick-handling and skating ability to dribble the puck past everyone and take it to the empty net. Brooks Laich made this even more difficult than it already is by repeatedly fouling everyone with the puck, especially Green. It was obvious that those four really love playing hockey and just being on the ice.
• Speaking of Carlson, he was the last player off the ice after giving backup goalie Brandon Holtby some extra shots, and when I left he was still autographing stuff for the fans along with Matt Hendricks. Earlier, he slipped a puck in between the narrow space between the glass and net for a young fan off his stick. Just another day for the young American hero, who hopefully will be a big fan favorite for many more years to come.

World Series Disappointment

I don’t have any particular rooting interest between the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers, but have been disappointed in one aspect of the series: the unfelt presences of Vladimir (The Impaler, The Voodoo King) Guerrero and Pablo (Kung Fu Panda) Sandoval. Guerrero is sporting a .100/.167.100 BA/OBP/SLG line in this World Series and was embarrassed when forced to play Game 1 in right field. Sandoval has only appeared in Game 3 as the DH and failed to get on base. It was my hope that these two players, two of the most entertaining to watch, would have good World Series performances on the biggest baseball stage, but so far this has not come true.

Guerrero has been fun to watch throughout his entire career because he could do anything, including things that seemed impossible. Hit a ball that bounced first? Guerrero did it. Throw a runner out at home from the warning track? Check. Combine power and speed? Guerrero had two 30 HR/30 SB seasons and currently has 436 HR and 179 SB. In his prime Guerrero was dominant enough to lead the league in being intentionally walked five times, and has put up a career .320/.380/.563 line, good for a career .394 wOBA. Besides his hitting, his defense (mainly with his cannon of an arm) was also spectacular, which is why Baseball Reference has his most comparable player for age 23-27 seasons be Willie Mays. Obviously, Guerrero is no Mays, in large part due to his body breaking down after playing about half of his 1004 games for the Expos on their debilitating artificial turf, which has turned him from an outfielder into a full time DH. Hopefully the sight of him hobbling in the outfield in Game 1 does not overshadow his hitting ability in the minds of new fans just being introduced to him.

Sandoval was a sensation last year, when he hit .330/.387/.556, a .396 wOBA (practically Guerrero’s career line) with a body type possibly not seen since Babe Ruth. But to call him just fat is unfair, as he somehow has enough agility and flexibility to play third base (and hence the nickname of Kung Fu Panda, as opposed to something else, such as Fat Albert). However, Sandoval severely regressed this year and has been benched for most of the postseason. Hopefully this season has just been bad luck (his BABIP was 59 points lower this year than last year), although it is impossible to ignore the possibility that his lack of conditioning has gotten the better of him. Nevertheless, it would be great if he could work up some of his old magic and deliver a clutch hit for the Giants in the remaining game(s) of the World Series.

Baseball is a fun game, and no one showcases this better than Guerrero and Sandoval. It is a shame that they haven’t been able to do so on the biggest stage so far.

Disappointing Centers

The Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils have both gotten off to slow starts this season, and while there is no one cause that can be attributed to the lack of success, one major factor is the disappointing efforts so far by the top-line centers. Nicklas Backstrom and Travis Zajac have combined for two goals, six assists, and a -1 +/-  in 17 games. Backstrom, who usually plays with Alex Ovechkin, scored 101 points last season in only his third year in the league. Zajac, 25, put up 67 points last year but was expected to benefit from centering a line with Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk. Recently the teams that receive excellent production from their centers (think the Pittsburgh Penguins with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jordan Staal or the Detroit Red Wings with Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, and Henrik Zetterberg) have had the most success. Backstrom and Zajac will be keys for the Caps and Devils if they want to have success throughout the season and in the playoffs, and both will have to step up their production from the level they are currently at.

Knicks and Wizards playoff contenders?

Yesterday, I wrote up a long and detailed post about the odds of the Knicks and Wizards making the playoffs this year like the ESPN.com experts believe, but Blogspot logged out/deleted it. I don't want to write the whole thing again, so here is the short version.

1. Heat
2. Magic
3. Celtics
4. Bulls
5. Bucks
6. Hawks
7. Bobcats
8. Knicks
9. 76ers
10. Wizards
11. Pacers
12. Pistons
13. Nets
14. Raptors
15. Cavaliers

With the Raptors and Cavaliers dropping to the bottom of the conference, the Knicks, with all their new acquisitions are able to capitalize and make the playoffs. I give more love to the Bobcats defense than ESPN.com does. I don't think there is enough around Wall for the Wizards to make the playoffs this year.

Jeffrey Maier's Spirit Reborn

Robinson Cano's home run yesterday where fans made contact with outfielder Nelson Cruz as he attempted to catch the ball brought a flashback to the Yankees' 1996 playoff series against the Baltimore Orioles. Then, Derek Jeter hit a fly ball that Tony Tarasco was prepared to catch, only for Yankee fan Jeffrey Maier to reach out and grab it first. It was ruled a HR and the Orioles never recovered. Now the Cano home run was not as clear cut as Jeter's in regards to whether it was interference. While I think Cruz was interfered with--that contact was made before he crossed the barrier and into the seats--it was a fine line. What I don't understand is why the umpires did not review it. I thought the point was to make sure all close home run calls are double checked to make sure they are correct? And if something in the rules stopped the umpires from looking at the replay, then that should be changed. With replay set up and all ready to go for home run calls, there is no reason for umpires or baseball to only go halfway.

Cliff Lee Comparable

After Cliff Lee's latest virtuoso playoff performance against the New York Yankees, (8 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 13 K) many writers now rank Lee as one of the best playoff pitchers of all time. He has been compared to Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Christy Mathewson, and Randy Johnson. Of those names listed above, the first three are high-caliber Hall of Famers, and Johnson will be once he is eligible. Lee, for all his remarkable achievements the past couple of seasons, does not have a career arc at their level. But another postseason great who has been compared to Lee, Curt Schilling, is a different and more interesting case. Schilling's place among the greatest pitchers in baseball history and whether he is worthy of the Hall of Fame is not obvious, and his career strongly parallels Lee's.

Both of them have made their fame with their postseason exploits. Lee currently is 7-0 in eight playoff starts, and in those starts has thrown 64.1 innings (slightly more than eight innings per start). With 67 strikeouts, Lee is averaging 9.37 K/9 and his ERA of 1.26 is backed up by his 1.54 FIP. Schilling, in 19 postseason starts, went 11-2 and threw 133.1 innings (slightly more than seven innings per start). Schilling's 8.10 K/9, while lower than Lee's, is as extraordinary as Lee's rate considering Schilling threw twice as many innings in the playoffs. Schilling's 3.06 FIP takes a little bit of the luster off his 2.23 career playoff ERA, but it is certainly impressive. Furthermore, both have succeeded against the New York Yankees. Lee is 3-0 against the Bronx Bombers in the postseason, having given up six runs (five earned) in 24 innings. Schilling's record against the Yankees was 2-1 in the playoffs, but it does not indicate how well he pitched. In the 2001 World Series he started three games for the Arizona Diamondbacks, pitching 21.1 innings and allowed only twelve hits and two walks while striking out 26. In the 2004 ALCS while with Boston, his numbers were not great but he was pitching hurt and gutted through the famous "bloody sock" game. Without Schilling, neither team could have defeated the Yankees and won the World Series.

But what truly makes Lee and Schilling interesting comparables are their regular season resumes. Schilling pitched for five different teams in his career, while Lee has already pitched for four. Both also struggled during their theoretical prime years. In 2006, Lee's age 27 season, he regressed to a 4.73 FIP and his value dropped by 1.6 WAR from the previous season. 2007 was even worse, as he only lasted in the majors for 97.1 innings thanks to a 5.48 FIP (0.2 WAR). In 1994 and 1995, Schilling's age 27 and 28 seasons, he threw a combined  198.1 innings with a 1994 FIP of 4.43. Both have been considered bullpen savers, as Lee has thrown more than 200 innings in five of his six full seasons, while Schilling threw over 250 innings four times. Lee and Schilling are both known as the rare breed of pitcher that strikes out a lot of batters but does not walk many. This past season Lee had a 10.28 K/BB ratio; he struck out 185 while walking 18. In 2002, Schilling's best season, he had a 9.58 K/BB ratio, striking out 316 while walking 33. Lee has already had three seasons with over 6.5 WAR, a mark Schilling surpassed five times. Schilling compiled 66.5 of his 86.1 career WAR at age 30 and later. Lee has compiled 13.6 of his 29.9 WAR the last two seasons (ages 30 and 31), and does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon. If Lee has the same type of longevity that Schilling enjoyed, then not only will he become a possible Hall of Fame candidate, but baseball fans can hope another pitcher of the Schilling/Lee mold is soon on the way.

Week 6 Picks

Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears: Chicago
At this point, it is really difficult to pick anyone from the NFC West to win a game unless they are playing someone else from the NFC West. Chicago's defense is one of five averaging less than fifteen points a game and should be able to overwhelm Seattle's offense.

Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers: Green Bay
Miami has the 28th best scoring offense and the 24th best scoring defense. Green Bay is ranked 8th in both. Plus, Chad Henne as your starting quarterback on the road is not a recipe for success.

San Diego Chargers vs. St. Louis Rams: San Diego
As much as I wish I could pick against Phillip Rivers and Norv Turner (and the Chargers are 0-3 on the road this season), this looks like an easy win for the Chargers. The Chargers have the 2nd best scoring offense and have the 2nd best yards/game defense (although that somehow has translated into the 20th best scoring defense). The Rams have been a nice surprise, but their injuries at WR will make it difficult for the pass game to be productive.

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots: New England
This should be a fun game to watch. New England has the best scoring offense (32.8 points/game, compared with Baltimore's 18.4 points/game) but the Raven's scoring defense is is 4th (14.4 points/game, compared to New England's 24.0 points/game). I'm picking New England for two reasons: Tom Brady is much better than Joe Flacco, and New England is playing at home.

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants: New York
Do I need to even explain this pick? I probably shouldn't be so flippant, as Detroit is averaging 25.2 points/game, good for 6th in the NFL. But it's the Lions. Enough said.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Atlanta
Atlanta's 2nd ranked scoring defense is going to eat up Kevin Kolb alive. Plus, their 10th ranked scoring offense should be able to do more than enough against the Eagles defense. The Eagles will still be waiting for their first home win after this game.

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh
The Steelers top ranked scoring defense will feast upon my boy Colt McCoy making his first NFL start. How does Cleveland think this is a good idea? Also, it is nice for Ben Roethlisberger that he gets to tune up on Cleveland for his first NFL start back from suspension.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New Orleans
I should probably pick Tampa for this game, since these teams are pretty even and Tampa is playing at home. Furthermore, Pierre Thomas still is out, leaving the Saints without a running game. But for all of that, I'm still picking New Orleans because I believe in Drew Brees over Josh Freeman.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: Kansas City
I'm fully on the Chiefs bandwagon. Their defense is for real, only allowing 14.3 points/game (3rd best in the NFL). I like their RB tandem of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and am a huge fan of their leading receiver, TE Tony Moeaki. Houston's offense is not good enough to compensate for their defense, which is allowing 27.2 points/game (29th in the NFL).

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos: New York
Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, and Jabar Gaffney can put up fantasy points, but thats not the QB/WR corp you want to win games. Especially when going against the 6th ranked scoring defense in the Jets. And especially when the Broncos defense is 25th in scoring defense.

Oakland Raiders vs. San Francisco 49ers: Oakland
Both teams have awful defenses, but at least Oakland's offense is respectable, averaging 22.2 points/game (11th in the NFL). Also, how bizarre is it that Coach Mike Singletary wanted to bench Alex Smith last week, but Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and the rest of the offense insisted Smith stay in the game? You know you're talking about Alex Smith right? The guy who has led your offense to average 15.2 points/game (only Carolina's is worse). David Carr's not that bad, right?

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota
I was originally thinking Dallas, but I didn't realize how good the Vikings defense has been, only allowing 16.8 points/game (7th best in the NFL). Although I'm worried about Brett Favre's karma hurting the team. Basically, I have no idea how this game will go, so I picked the home team.

Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis
Obviously I'll be rooting for the Redskins, but I don't see how Peyton Manning doesn't carve apart the Redskins secondary in front of a national audience, even if it is on the road. The Redskins will certainly need to score more than the 17.8 they are currently averaging to win this game.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tennessee
The Titans have the 5th best scoring offense and the 10th best scoring defense in the NFL. The Jaguars have the 13th best scoring offense and the 30th best scoring defense. My boy Vince Young and Chris Johnson should be able to control the tempo of this game and run all over Jacksonville.

Series of the Pitcher

There has been a lot of talk that 2010 has been the "Year of the Pitcher." Whether that is true or not is debatable, but this year's NLCS certainly contains great starting pitching. Not only do both rotations have a Cy Young caliber ace leading the staff, but the quality of the number three and four starters is impressive. Let's examine more closely how good these pitchers really are.

Game #1: Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay
This pitching duel is one of the most hyped playoff matchups in a long time, as both pitchers had legendary first starts to this postseason. Halladay threw the second no-hitter in postseason history, while Lincecum struck out fourteen in a complete game shutout. Similar to the aura of the Yankees in postseason games, when Halladay and Lincecum are on, you know that batters don't stand a chance against them. Halladay has been everything the Phillies wanted and more, anchoring the staff with a 3.01 FIP in 250.2 innings and leading the National League with 6.6 WAR. Lincecum, the winner of the last two Cy Youngs, had a "disappointing" season, as he finished with a 3.15 FIP in 212.1 innings for "only" 5.1 WAR. Lincecum's K/9 dropped to under ten for the first time since 2007, but his 9.79 K/9 still led NL starters. Not surprisingly, Lincecum led the league in strikeouts with 231, with Halladay finishing second with 219. But to show how small the drop-off truly was with Lincecum's strikeouts, if he had managed one more strikeout per start, he would have had more strikeouts than last season, when he had his career high of 262. With no offense to Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Josh Johnson, these are the two best pitchers in the National League and the difference in this game might come down to who surrenders the game to the bullpen first.

Game #2: Jonathan Sanchez vs. Roy Oswalt
Sanchez is not the second best pitcher for the Giants and pitched Game 3 of the NLDS against the Braves. This is not to say he is a bad pitcher, as his 4.00 FIP, while not spectacular, is backed up by a great 9.54 K/9, third best among all NL starters. Furthermore, Sanchez is on a roll right now. He pitched well in Game 3, throwing 7.1 innings of two hit, eleven strikeout baseball, and has been hot since September. He closed out the season with a 3.50 FIP and 10.6 K/9 in that timespan, but that does not truly show his success. He allowed six runs total (four earned) while striking out 42 in 35.2 innings. Assuming manager Bruce Bochy wants the mostly left-handed Phillies lineup to face a lefty in the first two games of the series and wants to save fly-ball pitcher Matt Cain for spacious AT&T Park, it makes sense to start Sanchez Game 2. Oswalt, shaky Game 2 of the NLDS against the Reds aside, is the Phillies second best pitcher. With Houston and Philadelphia this year he had a 3.27 FIP in 211.2 innings, good for 4.7 WAR. Oswalt's stuff has not deteriorated even though this is his tenth season in the majors, proven by his 8.21 K/9, his highest since his rookie season in 2001.

Game #3: Cole Hamels vs. Matt Cain
Cole Hamels' position on the Phillies staff is similar to Sanchez's for the Giants. He is a very good lefty who is not quite as good as the #1 and #2 starters (Hamels' FIP of 3.67, while a career best for him, is still worse than Halladay's and Oswalt's) but can have absolutely dominating starts due to his strikeout ability. Hamels' 9.10 K/9 was the best among Phillies starters and seventh among all NL starters. In Game 3 of the NLDS against Cincinnati he pitched a complete game shutout, getting nine strikeouts and twelve groundouts. When Hamels has his best stuff, as he did against the Reds, it is almost impossible to hit him hard. He will face Cain, the Giants' second best pitcher. Cain compiled a 3.65 FIP in 223.1 innings, good for 4.0 WAR. While Cain does not strike out as many batters as Lincecum or Sanchez, he also walks less, so his 2.9 K/BB is only slightly below Lincecum's, and ahead of Sanchez's. Hitters only hit .223 against Cain, and he fits well with his home ballpark.

Game #4: Joe Blanton vs. Madison Bumgarner
Whether this matchup occurs depends on how the first three games go, but if these two pitchers are allowed to pitch, it could still be tough on the offenses. Blanton's 4.34 FIP is not particularly impressive, but it is possible he has been unlucky with HRs this year. Blanton's xFIP, which normalizes HR rate, is an improved 4.06, and his 1.39 HR/9 rate is tough given that Blanton produces more groundballs than flyballs. Bumgarner has been impressive, producing a 3.66 FIP in 111 innings to produce 2.0 WAR in his first season in the majors. Bumgarner's 3.31 K/BB ratio is the best among Giants starters, showing nice command for the rookie. Limiting his walks will be key for Bumgarner, as the Phillies excel at exploiting the smallest of opportunities. With the pitchers set to start in this series, however, both the Phillies and Giants will not have a lot of opportunities to score, and fans will be able to enjoy a lot of fast-paced, low-scoring games.