Series of the Pitcher

There has been a lot of talk that 2010 has been the "Year of the Pitcher." Whether that is true or not is debatable, but this year's NLCS certainly contains great starting pitching. Not only do both rotations have a Cy Young caliber ace leading the staff, but the quality of the number three and four starters is impressive. Let's examine more closely how good these pitchers really are.

Game #1: Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay
This pitching duel is one of the most hyped playoff matchups in a long time, as both pitchers had legendary first starts to this postseason. Halladay threw the second no-hitter in postseason history, while Lincecum struck out fourteen in a complete game shutout. Similar to the aura of the Yankees in postseason games, when Halladay and Lincecum are on, you know that batters don't stand a chance against them. Halladay has been everything the Phillies wanted and more, anchoring the staff with a 3.01 FIP in 250.2 innings and leading the National League with 6.6 WAR. Lincecum, the winner of the last two Cy Youngs, had a "disappointing" season, as he finished with a 3.15 FIP in 212.1 innings for "only" 5.1 WAR. Lincecum's K/9 dropped to under ten for the first time since 2007, but his 9.79 K/9 still led NL starters. Not surprisingly, Lincecum led the league in strikeouts with 231, with Halladay finishing second with 219. But to show how small the drop-off truly was with Lincecum's strikeouts, if he had managed one more strikeout per start, he would have had more strikeouts than last season, when he had his career high of 262. With no offense to Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Josh Johnson, these are the two best pitchers in the National League and the difference in this game might come down to who surrenders the game to the bullpen first.

Game #2: Jonathan Sanchez vs. Roy Oswalt
Sanchez is not the second best pitcher for the Giants and pitched Game 3 of the NLDS against the Braves. This is not to say he is a bad pitcher, as his 4.00 FIP, while not spectacular, is backed up by a great 9.54 K/9, third best among all NL starters. Furthermore, Sanchez is on a roll right now. He pitched well in Game 3, throwing 7.1 innings of two hit, eleven strikeout baseball, and has been hot since September. He closed out the season with a 3.50 FIP and 10.6 K/9 in that timespan, but that does not truly show his success. He allowed six runs total (four earned) while striking out 42 in 35.2 innings. Assuming manager Bruce Bochy wants the mostly left-handed Phillies lineup to face a lefty in the first two games of the series and wants to save fly-ball pitcher Matt Cain for spacious AT&T Park, it makes sense to start Sanchez Game 2. Oswalt, shaky Game 2 of the NLDS against the Reds aside, is the Phillies second best pitcher. With Houston and Philadelphia this year he had a 3.27 FIP in 211.2 innings, good for 4.7 WAR. Oswalt's stuff has not deteriorated even though this is his tenth season in the majors, proven by his 8.21 K/9, his highest since his rookie season in 2001.

Game #3: Cole Hamels vs. Matt Cain
Cole Hamels' position on the Phillies staff is similar to Sanchez's for the Giants. He is a very good lefty who is not quite as good as the #1 and #2 starters (Hamels' FIP of 3.67, while a career best for him, is still worse than Halladay's and Oswalt's) but can have absolutely dominating starts due to his strikeout ability. Hamels' 9.10 K/9 was the best among Phillies starters and seventh among all NL starters. In Game 3 of the NLDS against Cincinnati he pitched a complete game shutout, getting nine strikeouts and twelve groundouts. When Hamels has his best stuff, as he did against the Reds, it is almost impossible to hit him hard. He will face Cain, the Giants' second best pitcher. Cain compiled a 3.65 FIP in 223.1 innings, good for 4.0 WAR. While Cain does not strike out as many batters as Lincecum or Sanchez, he also walks less, so his 2.9 K/BB is only slightly below Lincecum's, and ahead of Sanchez's. Hitters only hit .223 against Cain, and he fits well with his home ballpark.

Game #4: Joe Blanton vs. Madison Bumgarner
Whether this matchup occurs depends on how the first three games go, but if these two pitchers are allowed to pitch, it could still be tough on the offenses. Blanton's 4.34 FIP is not particularly impressive, but it is possible he has been unlucky with HRs this year. Blanton's xFIP, which normalizes HR rate, is an improved 4.06, and his 1.39 HR/9 rate is tough given that Blanton produces more groundballs than flyballs. Bumgarner has been impressive, producing a 3.66 FIP in 111 innings to produce 2.0 WAR in his first season in the majors. Bumgarner's 3.31 K/BB ratio is the best among Giants starters, showing nice command for the rookie. Limiting his walks will be key for Bumgarner, as the Phillies excel at exploiting the smallest of opportunities. With the pitchers set to start in this series, however, both the Phillies and Giants will not have a lot of opportunities to score, and fans will be able to enjoy a lot of fast-paced, low-scoring games.