Texas Sized Collapse

There are many reasons that I love baseball, and one of them is how great statistics are at describing and explaining the game. But I will be the first to admit that stats can only tell so much, as was demonstrated in the eighth inning between the Rangers and Yankees in Game 1. The Rangers had a 93.4% win probability according to FanGraphs, as they were up 5-1 entering the top of the eighth. C.J. Wilson had out-pitched his counterpart CC Sabathia and was pitching a gem of a game, only giving up four hits in the first seven innings. He faced Brett Gardner to lead off the inning, and allowed an infield single. Not a great start, but there was no reason to panic yet. And then Derek Jeter smashed a double that scored Gardner and knocked Wilson out of the game. After this happened, I knew without a doubt that the Rangers were about to blow the game. The Yankees are one of the few sports teams where it is guaranteed they will make you pay for your mistakes when it matters most. You can call it experience, an aura, or simply greatness intertwining with destiny, but these Yankees will not lose if you give them the smallest of opportunities.

Sure enough, Darren Oliver came in and promptly walked Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira to load the bases. It made sense to use Oliver, as he has been an excellent reliever for the Rangers all season, leading the team with a 2.64 FIP and contributing 1.5 WAR (second highest on the Rangers among relievers). But clearly Oliver did not have his command tonight and another pitcher was needed to face Alex Rodriguez with the bases loaded. But instead of calling upon well-rested closer (and best Rangers reliever with 1.8 WAR) Neftali Feliz, manager Ron Washington called upon Darren O'Day. This is not to say O'Day is a bad pitcher, as his 3.5 FIP and .197 BAA are good; however, they are not as good as Feliz's 2.96 FIP and .180 BAA. Furthermore, if Washington was hoping for the double play, there were better choices than O'Day, as O'Day is a fly-ball pitcher (42.2% FB%, .88 GB/FB ratio). Besides the fact that Feliz is the better pitcher, Washington occasionally used him for two inning saves in the regular season, so there is no excuse for having to save him for the ninth, especially with the eighth being a higher leverage situation.

Needless to say, Rodriguez hit a hard single to left and scored Jeter and Swisher to make it a 5-4 game. Washington made another pitching change, this time bringing in Clay Rapada to face MVP candidate Robinson Cano. Simply put, why? Rapada pitched nine innings for the Rangers this season and was not on their ALDS roster. You really want him pitching with a game of this magnitude on the line? It's not even as if he was lights out in those nine innings--his FIP of 7.19 is far from inspiring, even with the small sample size. Supposedly, Rapada, a lefty, would neutralize Cano, a left-handed hitter. There is a problem with this theory, however--Cano hits lefties very well. For this season, his wOBA against lefties was .368, and last year it was even better at .373. Furthermore, Cano had hit a HR against the superior lefty Wilson earlier in the game, proving he can hit lefty pitching. Naturally, he singled against Rapada to score Teixeira to tie the game at five.

Washington, however, was not done confounding everyone with his pitcher selections. He pulled Rapada to bring in another lefty, Derek Holland. Why not use Holland from the start? He is the better lefty compared to Rapada in K/BB (2.25 vs. 0.71), GB/FB (.99 vs. .57), FIP (4.02 vs. 7.19) and WAR (.8 vs. -.3--that's right, negative). And why still no Feliz? Marcus Thames singles home Rodriguez, and while Holland retired the next three batters, the Yankees had taken the lead and all the momentum. To recap, the Rangers needed five pitchers in the top of the eighth before recording an out. It is nearly impossible to recover from a meltdown like that.

But Kerry Wood comes in for the bottom half of the inning, and he walked the first batter, Ian Kinsler, to possibly put some hope back that the Rangers could salvage this mess. But Kinsler commited a cardinal sin by getting picked off by Wood at first, David Murphy repeatedly swung at ball four and grounds out to first, and pinch hitter Julio Borbon struck out. If Kinsler hadn't been picked off, and Murphy had taken the walk Wood was trying to give him, then the Rangers probably would have pinch hit Mitch Moreland, a superior hitter to Borbon. With two runners on and no outs, that would have been a nice opportunity for the Rangers to take back the lead. But once again, the Rangers took themselves out of it.

Even with the Yankees showing mercy (or being stupid) by asking Swisher, their second best hitter, to attempt to sacrifice bunt with Jeter already in scoring position and not scoring any additional runs, Mariano Rivera closed out the bottom of the ninth for yet another postseason save. The Rangers have blown a serious opportunity to take a lead in the series against the Yankees best starter, and it could very well to be so demoralizing that it will be too big a hole to climb out of.