Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Cliff Lee Comparable

After Cliff Lee's latest virtuoso playoff performance against the New York Yankees, (8 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 13 K) many writers now rank Lee as one of the best playoff pitchers of all time. He has been compared to Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Christy Mathewson, and Randy Johnson. Of those names listed above, the first three are high-caliber Hall of Famers, and Johnson will be once he is eligible. Lee, for all his remarkable achievements the past couple of seasons, does not have a career arc at their level. But another postseason great who has been compared to Lee, Curt Schilling, is a different and more interesting case. Schilling's place among the greatest pitchers in baseball history and whether he is worthy of the Hall of Fame is not obvious, and his career strongly parallels Lee's.

Both of them have made their fame with their postseason exploits. Lee currently is 7-0 in eight playoff starts, and in those starts has thrown 64.1 innings (slightly more than eight innings per start). With 67 strikeouts, Lee is averaging 9.37 K/9 and his ERA of 1.26 is backed up by his 1.54 FIP. Schilling, in 19 postseason starts, went 11-2 and threw 133.1 innings (slightly more than seven innings per start). Schilling's 8.10 K/9, while lower than Lee's, is as extraordinary as Lee's rate considering Schilling threw twice as many innings in the playoffs. Schilling's 3.06 FIP takes a little bit of the luster off his 2.23 career playoff ERA, but it is certainly impressive. Furthermore, both have succeeded against the New York Yankees. Lee is 3-0 against the Bronx Bombers in the postseason, having given up six runs (five earned) in 24 innings. Schilling's record against the Yankees was 2-1 in the playoffs, but it does not indicate how well he pitched. In the 2001 World Series he started three games for the Arizona Diamondbacks, pitching 21.1 innings and allowed only twelve hits and two walks while striking out 26. In the 2004 ALCS while with Boston, his numbers were not great but he was pitching hurt and gutted through the famous "bloody sock" game. Without Schilling, neither team could have defeated the Yankees and won the World Series.

But what truly makes Lee and Schilling interesting comparables are their regular season resumes. Schilling pitched for five different teams in his career, while Lee has already pitched for four. Both also struggled during their theoretical prime years. In 2006, Lee's age 27 season, he regressed to a 4.73 FIP and his value dropped by 1.6 WAR from the previous season. 2007 was even worse, as he only lasted in the majors for 97.1 innings thanks to a 5.48 FIP (0.2 WAR). In 1994 and 1995, Schilling's age 27 and 28 seasons, he threw a combined  198.1 innings with a 1994 FIP of 4.43. Both have been considered bullpen savers, as Lee has thrown more than 200 innings in five of his six full seasons, while Schilling threw over 250 innings four times. Lee and Schilling are both known as the rare breed of pitcher that strikes out a lot of batters but does not walk many. This past season Lee had a 10.28 K/BB ratio; he struck out 185 while walking 18. In 2002, Schilling's best season, he had a 9.58 K/BB ratio, striking out 316 while walking 33. Lee has already had three seasons with over 6.5 WAR, a mark Schilling surpassed five times. Schilling compiled 66.5 of his 86.1 career WAR at age 30 and later. Lee has compiled 13.6 of his 29.9 WAR the last two seasons (ages 30 and 31), and does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon. If Lee has the same type of longevity that Schilling enjoyed, then not only will he become a possible Hall of Fame candidate, but baseball fans can hope another pitcher of the Schilling/Lee mold is soon on the way.

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